Some time ago, Aauto Quicker successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and its market value exceeded one trillion, successfully rewriting the pattern of Internet companies in China. On the day of listing, Internet giants such as Pan Luan, Jin Yechen, Zhuang Minghao, Li Tianhua, etc., together with the big names in the investment field, broadcast live on the video number to share their views on Aauto Quicker IPO and the logic of "short video+live broadcast" to attract capital. This article is a summary of the live broadcast that night, with a total of 4888 words, hoping to help you.
On February 5, 2021, Aauto Quicker, the "first short video", landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
On the evening of the same day, Pan Luan, a well-known science and technology critic, launched a live broadcast of Aauto Quicker IPO, and shared their views on Aauto Quicker IPO and the logic of "short video+live broadcast" to attract capital together with Internet industry and investment leaders such as Gao Chuangfu partner Jin Yechen, former Baidu P9 architect Li Tianhua, former Jingwei China investor Zhuang Minghao and former DCM investment vice president Hu Boyu.
Below, 5000 words of super-long refining dictation are presented:
Pan chaos:When Aauto Quicker didn’t go public yesterday, Zhuang Minghao made a remark in the group, which I thought was particularly good. He said that everyone has not yet agreed on many things, but only reached a full consensus on the price. Two minutes after the IPO in Aauto Quicker opened today, the price soared from 110 to 330, and the oversubscription should be more than 1,000 times. It seems that the retail funds have been frozen by more than 1 trillion. This is a record high. Now, Aauto Quicker’s market value of one trillion yuan is more than the sum of one-third of Maotai, one-fifth of Ali, one-sixth of Tencent and Xiaomi Netease, followed by three and a half bilibili, nine Iqiyis and fourteen Weibo, which is also equivalent to the sum of the market value of the whole A-share media.
Zhuang Minghao:The enthusiasm of the market really shocked me, but the listing of this super-large company actually represents something behind it. Aauto Quicker is not over yet, and there may be something bigger soon, and an era is coming.
Li Tianhua:Aauto Quicker’s valuation of $200 billion, I personally feel that it has basically eaten up the room for growth in one year, but Aauto Quicker’s imagination is still very large. The development cycle of the Internet in the past has proved one thing: when a super platform can achieve 300 million daily activities, there will be huge space for information networks, industrial networks and media networks.
To ask whether the valuation of Aauto Quicker’s $200 billion is reasonable, let’s take the simplest example: before Aauto Quicker was listed, bilibili was a product with a daily life of 50 million and a monthly life of about 220 million, and it could be estimated at $50 billion. Last year, Aauto Quicker was an App with a daily life of 280 million and a monthly life of 700 million. According to this multiple, the market value of 200 billion US dollars is completely reasonable.
Li Tianhua:According to the current daily living level, compared with the user income range of 250 million to 300 million per day of standard Baidu in the past ten years, the advertising fee in Aauto Quicker can now reach more than one hundred million per day, especially in the case that Aauto Quicker Daily Living is more than one hundred million yuan more than mobile phone Baidu, there is still a lot of room for realizing advertising in Aauto Quicker.
Li Tianhua:When we consider the future growth trend of a platform and predict how much money it can earn and what scale it can grow to, we need to see clearly whether it earns money from the environment or its own business, that is, where the money comes from.
I think that the platform will start to make "valuable" content after finishing "interesting" content, which is a very effective core rule to help the platform retain users for a long period of time. From this logic, the core strategies of each platform in the next three to five years will focus on universal knowledge, and I believe Aauto Quicker will do the same.
Now I want to ask: how big is the pan-knowledge?
In the short term, there is a daily growth of 300%-500%, which is the same as the rapid penetration of short videos in 2015. This means that pan-knowledge can reach hundreds of billions of plates every year, and it can reach trillions in the next five years, which is basically such an interval. Aauto Quicker’s Gaori life has great opportunities in this respect.
To give the simplest example: the income of Netease’s excellent course was not as fast as it is now in August last year. Now, individuals have quickly achieved tens of millions of income a month from hundreds of thousands of income a month, which was unthinkable before. Nowadays, the individual economy is on the rise, and it is changing from a unidirectional economy to a multi-directional economy. Five years ago, we said that it was impossible for individual companies to make 50 billion to 60 billion yuan a year. Now, 20 billion to 30 billion yuan is very common, and Li Jiaqi or Viya have a net profit of 2 billion yuan a year.
In fact, there is a lot of room for knowledge creators now, and they can earn tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. Therefore, pan-knowledge is definitely a very big cake for Aauto Quicker, because there are many high-quality and talented creators in Aauto Quicker. Because the trend of talents precedes the trend of the market, I believe Aauto Quicker will do better and better.
Another space is light consumption. We can see that one of Aauto Quicker’s heavy businesses now is e-commerce, but Aauto Quicker is particularly restrained in this respect, and has been releasing water to raise fish instead of harvesting cakes. Aauto Quicker is the only relatively safe platform for private domain traffic, so KOL has a lot of bonuses here.
You can see that at present, there are many companies selling a chicken meatball on A-shares, with a flow of 3 billion to 4 billion yuan a year, which can be estimated as a hundred billion yuan. This is just a single product. In the future, if many new brands and single products are bound by Aauto Quicker, it will definitely make more room.
Jin Yechen:The monopoly problem is the concentration of different short video platforms. At present, it seems that the concentration of the first few is becoming more and more obvious. Tik Tok, Aauto Quicker and Video Number form the first echelon, and the gap with the second echelon is widening.
Last year, the number of video increased rapidly, with DAU exceeding 300 million, but most of the increasing users were not from Tik Tok or Aauto Quicker. At the same time, the pure adhesion between the new users and the existing users was very low, and the duration was the same. This shows that the market is still an incremental market, which makes it difficult to say who monopolizes it. Then from the business point of view, the businesses of Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker are more complicated, and the higher the business complexity, the less likely it is to be "defeated", so it is unlikely that one company will dominate in a short time, and the tug-of-war between the first three companies should last for a long time.
Li Tianhua:Content distribution can never be monopolized by one company. It is a business type with head effect. Different platforms occupy different categories in essence and have different mental status in everyone’s mind. Therefore, it is very difficult to make another Aauto Quicker from the category of Aauto Quicker, which cannot be copied, because Aauto Quicker is an endogenous growth force. Like Baidu Post Bar, it is not a business operated by external strategies, which conforms to the working principle of nature.
In the history of Internet in China, an APP that has lived for 300 million days has not collapsed in a short time, because it has already had the scale effect.
On the other hand, absolute monopoly can only be achieved through network effect. Facts have proved that the index of network effect is bigger than the index of scale effect. All the companies that have grown up in recent years with more than 10 billion US dollars and 100 billion US dollars are all businesses made up of network effect and scale effect, without exception. This is because the power of the individual is infinitely magnified in the transition stage of the network from online to dense, and then to functional now, so the individual can quickly drive a lot of influence.
Jin Yechen:Aauto Quicker’s network effect has always been underestimated, but we can’t find a very balanced model to evaluate it. For example, has the two-way attention and two-way interaction of so many users in Aauto Quicker been transformed into long-term retention? Tik Tok said that he has it, but he relies on a lot of content and a very efficient recommendation algorithm. Looking at the data, the two numbers are the same, but the logic or long-term operation philosophy reflected behind it is completely different. Although they are all retained, they do not reflect the same user value.
Why did Aauto Quicker upgrade to 8.0?
My first reaction is that Aauto Quicker wants to sell advertisements-because there is no way, the capital market is relatively short-term, quick and direct, that is, it depends on how much income you have, how many months you live and how long you have. Therefore, Aauto Quicker should enlarge the part of scale effect so that people can see it, that is to say, it proves that it has scale effect, but it does not mean that the value of Aauto Quicker’s network effect is correctly evaluated.
Li TianhuaContent-based distribution platform, in fact, if the content is positioned and distributed efficiently, it has a core product value chain, that is, four elements, one is production, the other is distribution, the other is consumption, and the other is realization, forming a closed loop. The more you produce, the better, the more you distribute, the longer you consume, the more you can realize, the better and the bigger you can supply more producers to empower. Any content distribution platform must first respect this law, so your starting point must be the supply side.
Zhuang Minghao:If we pull out the 100 most popular videos in Tik Tok every day, and then pull out those in Aauto Quicker as well, you will find that their business level is getting more and more similar recently. Aauto Quicker is also strengthening and reinforcing these gaps in its content categories, which is a very realistic problem. But on the other hand, while reinforcing, Tik Tok can’t make up for the original ecological thing in Aauto Quicker, so optimists think it may be the base of Aauto Quicker, and pessimistic users will feel that the two houses will be more and more alike in the future.
Jin Yechen:Aauto Quicker’s family is no longer a current problem, but a historical problem. It was almost the same in 2018, but it is no longer a problem now. This problem was almost solved before the revision of 8.0, but the traffic was not enough, so the efficiency was not high enough, but after 8.0, this problem has been completely solved in my opinion.
From the data point of view, in 18 years, there are only 60 big V’s with more than 10 million fans, but by 2020, there will be more than 100 new fans with more than 10 million fans in just one year.
Zhuang Minghao:Tik Tok deliberately won’t let the big V on his head grow very big. You will find that we have rarely brushed the videos of the big V with 30 million fans. But Aauto Quicker didn’t do this kind of control and operation at the earliest. Naturally, someone will take another step forward through his way, that is to say, when your platform chooses the way of heaven, someone will inevitably help you exercise the way of man.
But at this time today, let’s look at the data. The latest GMV in Aauto Quicker is 300 billion, and we put all the GMVs of these six families together, which is only 6% and 7%. What else can we say? And today, Aauto Quicker rang the bell and found an e-commerce user named Sister Mi, not anyone in the six families, so the official attitude is also obvious.
Hu boyu：I came into contact with this project in April and May of 2014. At that time, we saw that there were only about 900,000 DAU in Aauto Quicker, but it had one advantage, that is, it was improving all the time. If you look at its data from February to April, you will find that the retention in the next month and the retention in the next week are rising rapidly, and then the duration is also the same, which may be from 18 minutes to 28 minutes. You must feel very short when you hear this time. At that time, it was rare to see an APP with a daily duration of 28 minutes in 2014.
Let’s go and see what causes it to last longer and stay better. It turns out that it is getting bigger.
We calculated the ratio of its daily new users to its daily users, which is basically about 3%, that is, if you have 1 million daily users, you will have 30,000 new users, and if you have 10 million daily users, you will have 300,000 new users. When you reach 20 million daily jobs, there will be 600,000 new ones. That’s a ratio.
Today, this investment in DCM should be the most profitable project in DCM’s history-investing $1,500 in return for a market value of $13 billion.
Pan chaos:Just now, DCM said that the increase in Aauto Quicker was initially 10 million yuan, corresponding to 300,000 daily work, and 20 million yuan corresponding to 600,000. Is it still true now?
Hu boyu: basically unchanged.
Pan chaos:But today it has another problem. Like today’s internet users, their mobile phones are not long, and they have been washed back and forth several times. Can this new day job continue?
Hu Boyu:Yes, there will be a wave of changing planes twice a year, and some new K12 people will have mobile phones every year, so this is an opportunity.
Li Tianhua:And there is another way, which is to do version attack. My main APP has washed you many times, so I will change my identity and let you install it in your mobile phone.
Pan chaos:When you talk about this, I want to ask, what do you think of the extreme edition? The fastest growing app in the past year should be Aauto Quicker Extreme Edition.
Li Tianhua:To put it bluntly, the launch cost of the lite version is lower than that of the main app, and the ROI is higher. And it is Tik Tok’s stock users.
Zhuang Minghao:I think Aauto Quicker game is a little more stable than byte game. On the other hand, of course, it may not be so radical. It is trying all kinds of possibilities, such as small game browsing platforms, light and leisure, even signing some heavy products, and even making investments. I think strategically speaking, the richness of the game strategy is probably like this for any platform at this time today. But in terms of business extensibility, the game is the most uncertain thing.
Of course, this does not mean that Aauto Quicker’s game will be very good in the future, nor does it mean that the headline can’t be made into a game. It’s just that at this stage, compared with the development in the past, I think Aauto Quicker’s strategy in the game is relatively stable, and I think it’s ok to recruit people. Compared with the headline, which is unscrupulous and aimless, I think I prefer the former Aauto Quicker’s way.
Jin Yechen:Aauto Quicker, by contrast, does not get so much attention, and then it actually has more space. Moreover, I have always had a long-term view, that is, I think that although the game business is unstable, it is a work of art as long as it continues to invest money and gives enough freedom. If you give enough freedom to the producer, theoretically, the self-developed game will definitely exist when the time comes. This is a matter of probability, that is, patience.
Pan chaos:In 2018, when Meituan went public, I was at the scene. What impressed me more was Wang Xing, who said a word, thanking Jobs. Few people say thank you to other CEOs on WeChat, and thank a person who has passed away. I really should thank Jobs. Without a smart phone, how can there be OBS? Without a smart phone, how can there be a recommended scene? The camera has become a recording device available to everyone, connecting everyone online.
Like the past ten years, in the field of connecting people with information, in fact, the biggest opportunities in my opinion are two. The first one is how to organize information, and obviously it has changed from search to recommendation. The other is how to produce content, that is, from graphic to short video.
And these two, Aauto Quicker just got stuck.
This article was compiled and published by @ Zheng Zi. Everyone is a product manager. It is forbidden to reprint without permission.
The title map comes from, based on CC0 protocol.
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